
Dear Democrats Around the World,
Wednesday Wire is copyright protected, but I choose not to exercise it. If you do quote what is here, it would be nice to give credit.
WW is now also appearing, in part or in whole, on the GroupNewsBlog.net and Americans Away from Home. Both are interesting and very different websites, well worth a visit.
The Indiana count went down to the wire because one county likes to report only after they have counted all the votes – Lake County, where Gary is, nearly pushed the result in the other direction. Note the McCain totals – for a guy who has already won the nomination, these numbers are pathetic. The Ron Paul numbers have to be of great concern for November to the Republican leadership.
INDIANA (99%);
Clinton Obama
Votes % Del. Votes % Del.
638,192 50.89 38 615,753 49.11 34
McCain Huckabee Paul Romney
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
317.8K 77 41.0K 10 31.5K 8 19.5K 5
NORTH CAROLINA (99%)
Clinton Obama
Votes % Del. Votes % Del.
657,943 41.86 42 890,700 56.68 60
(13 delegates still not distributed (estimates are 10 for Clinton and 3 more for Obama)
McCain Huckabee Paul No. Preference
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
381.1K 73 52.9K 12 40.3K 8 20.3K 4
The SurveyUSA run as the most accurate pollster took a big hit. SUSA had predicted a five point win in NC and a 12 point loss in Indiana for Obama. The most laughed-at pollster this season was Zogby, until last night. He predicted a 14 point win in NC and a two point win in Indiana for Obama – darn close.
After tonight, here’s where Hillary stands and what she needs to win the nomination. The numbers come from the Democratic Convention Watch website (www.demconwatch.blogspot.com)
Clinton Obama
Before tonight 1609 1745.5
Tonight (so far) 80 94
New totals 1689 1839.5
Needed to get to 2025 336 186
Remaining pledged del. 230 (including 13 from NC)
Remaining unpledged Supers 270.5 (the .5 is DA Chair Christine Marques)
Total available 500.5
Assuming that Hillary runs the table in the remaining primaries and gets 60% of the pledged delegates; the breakout would be +138 for Clinton and + 92 for Obama.
(Note: Clinton has not won 60% in any primary since Super Tuesday)
New totals 1827 1931
Clinton would need 198 of the remaining 270.5 unpledged Super delegates or 73.2%. As Chris Bowers noted in Open Left dot com, the remaining Super delegates are generally not in favor of Clinton, but have various reasons for not stating their choice, the major one of which is that the Clinton have done much for individual elected officials and senior activists in the party and the Supers don’t want to appear to be ungrateful. That will now change. Bowers also notes that the media collectively changed its tune last night and are saying what WW readers have known since the Wisconsin primary – it’s over.
Media reports after the vote last night are suggesting that the Clintons are contemplating loaning more millions to her campaign since the well of campaign donations is surely to dry up. (Update: dailykos is reporting that Clinton loaned her campaign $6.4 million in April.) All television and campaign appearances have been cancelled for 7 May and the candidate, the family and the campaign staff will be in assessment mode. There are two possibilities:
If I had to stake a bet on something; I would bet that Gore, the Edwards, Dean, Pelosi, Reid and even Jimmy Carter will be giving some private advice today. (For an interesting poll on what Dean should do, go to www.americans-away-from-home.com and look at the Friday poll.)
While Barack Obama came out of North Carolina and Indiana with the nomination; exit polls showed that the Jeremiah Wright issue was still prevalent in the minds of a lot of voters. Over the course of the next few days, we may find out that the Republican voters who were following Rush Limbaugh’s advice and voting for Hillary in Indiana were the voters who were thinking most about Wright; the GOP may raise this issue again in the fall. Can they derail Obama as Clinton could not?
Jimmy Carter’s visit to the Middle East and his discussion with Hamas and Syria have a couple of Republican congressmen in a snit. MI – 09 Rep Joe Knollenberg and PA – 09 Rep Bill Shuster are proposing the Coordinated American Response to Extreme Radicals (CARTER) Act to deny further Federal funding to the Carter Center, which engages in many human rights and poverty reduction projects around the world, as well as election monitoring. (More details at www.muzzlewatch.com.)
Shuster’s opponent in the south-central Pennsylvania 9th district is school teacher Tony Barr, who lost to Shuster in 2006 (Bush’s best PA district in 2004.) . If you are from Pennsylvania or would just like to send Shuster a message a donation to http://tonybarr2008.com/ might be in order. Unfortunately, Knollenberg’s main Democratic opponent also condemned Carter’s talks with Hamas, so he won’t get a mention here.
While it is unlikely that the Shuster-Knollenberg effort will result in loss of funding for the Carter Center, the appropriate Democratic response, should it happen, might well be a denial of funds to the National Archives for any support of the Bush library at Southern Methodist University, a topic touched on several times in WW (full disclosure, my alma mater). The SMU website now proudly banners it as home of the Bush Presidential Library, but the recently concluded Quadrennial Conference of the United Methodist Church passed a resolution 844-20 to require a vote on the issue by its South Central Conference, which owns SMU, (Methodist churches in TX, LA, AR, KS, OK, NM and NE) before the deal can be sealed. Both the Bush Administration and the University wanted to bypass this step (required by the bylaws of the church). That vote will take place in July in Dallas and it could be close.
INDIANA. Republican Governor Mitch Daniels is vulnerable this fall and the race to see who will be his Democratic opponent is too close to call and may require a recount. Former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson trails Architect Jim Schellinger by less than 500 votes out of more than 1.2 million cast. Either Thompson or Schellinger is give a very good chance of defeating Daniels in a more purple Indiana.
LOUISIANA. In a major victory for the Democratic Party nationwide, Don Cazayoux defeated Woody Jenkins 49-46 to take a seat that has been in Republican hands since the late 1970s. Jenkins was supported by advertisements from extreme right wing 527s and Woody once had ties to neo Nazi David Duke, which didn’t stop the RNCC from pouring a lot of money into this race. House seats tend to stay in the control of a party for long stretches and this a major loss for the Republican party and bodes well for the May 13 special election in Mississippi’s first district between Dem.Travis Childers and Republican Greg Davis. Childers almost won the first round. You can help at http://www.childersforcongress.com
NORTH CAROLINA. The battle for Elizabeth Dole’s seat is now set with the primary win of State Senator Kay Hagan (http://kayhagan.com/). She won 60% of the vote against four opponents. Dole is favored, but this race is considered a second tier race that could mean the difference for a filibuster proof Senate. The race for Governor (Gov. Easley is term limited) will be between Dem. Lt. Gov. Bev. Perdue and Charlotte mayor Republican Pat McCrory and is seen as a toss up this far out.
From the History News Network poll recommended above; a couple of quotes (among many good ones):
The comments that many of the respondents included with their evaluations provide a clear sense of the reasons behind the overwhelming consensus that George W. Bush’s presidency is among the worst in American history.
No individual president can compare to the second Bush,” wrote one. “Glib, contemptuous, ignorant, incurious, a dupe of anyone who humors his deluded belief in his heroic self, he has bankrupted the country with his disastrous war and his tax breaks for the rich, trampled on the Bill of Rights, appointed foxes in every henhouse, compounded the terrorist threat, turned a blind eye to torture and corruption and a looming ecological disaster, and squandered the rest of the world’s goodwill. In short, no other president’s faults have had so deleterious an effect on not only the country but the world at large.
And:
His administration has been the most reckless, dangerous, irresponsible, mendacious, arrogant, self-righteous, incompetent, and deeply corrupt one in all of American history.
Best regards
John McQueen
Am Goetzenberg 2
69126 Heidelberg, Germany
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Dear Democrats Around the World,
Wednesday Wire is copyright protected, but I choose not to exercise it. If you do quote what is here, it would be nice to give credit.
WW is now also appearing, in part or in whole, on the GroupNewsBlog.net and Americans Away from Home. Both are interesting and very different websites, well worth a visit.
Here are the most recent polling numbers (from pollster.com) for Indiana and North Carolina, whose primaries are coming up next week:
INDIANA. Pollster.com average Clinton 50.5 Obama 42.8
Poll Date Voters PPP(D) 26-27.4 1388 LVs 50 (-) 42 (-) SUSA 23-25.4 628 LVs 52 (55) 43 (39) R2000 23-24.4 400 LVs 47 (49) 48 (46) ARG 23-24.4 600 LVs 50 (53) 45 (44) Howey-Guage 23-24.4 600 LVs 46 (-) 46 (-)
NORTH CAROLINA. Pollster.com average Clinton 37.5 Obama 54.1
Rasmussen 28.4 774 LVs 37 (-) 51 (-) SUSA 26-28.4 727 LVs 44 (41) 49 (52) ARG 26-27.4 600 LVs 42 (41) 52 (52) PPP(D) 27.4 1121 LVs 39 (32) 51 (57)
Indiana and North Carolina have both tightened in the past week to ten days, but in opposite directions. Obama may still have a blowout win in North Carolina, but this year’s best polling outfit (SUSA) shows a narrow lead for Obama; they also show a narrowing lead for Clinton in Indiana. The same pattern was true for them in Pennsylvania; so much so that SUSA was off target there. Next Monday’s polls will tell whether the Wright appearance and Obama’s nearly complete disassociation from his former pastor is having any impact.
A rather bizarre week in the campaign.
Crawford v. Marion County Election Board is a major decision that could change the face of American politics for the very negative unless the Democratic Party decides to fight for its voters on every level. The Supreme Court, in a mixed 6-3 decision upheld the constitutionality of the Indiana Voter ID law that requires a government-issued photo identification be presented in order to vote. With this ruling, at least 20 states are poised to pass similar legislation that will significantly reduce the ability of first time, elderly, African American and poor voters to vote in this year’s presidential election. The court-sanctioned phony issue of voter fraud (no one has ever been prosecuted in Indiana for impersonating another voter) is the fulfillment of a Republican dream to suppress the number of voters from the very groups that would have the most interest in throwing them out of office. Below in reading recommendations 7g and 7h are a ‘friend of the court’ brief and a discussion of the key issues by renowned election law expert. Loyola (LA) University professor Richard L. Hasen. While, as Hasen points out, there is no single majority opinion in this case, which gives a ray of hope that the worst can be avoided, the fact that the Supreme Court has now ruled that very strict ID laws can be passed, Republicans can now push hard at the state level to legally tilt the electoral playing field to their advantage everywhere.
Democratic Party leaders have reacted with outrage at the decision, but outrage must lead to action to overturn the ruling through electoral reform legislation. The absolute minimum is a constitutional amendment giving every citizen the right to vote. (U.S. citizens do not have this right.)
In other states the push to enact similar legislation must be stopped. In states that do enact the stricter controls; the party and its allied groups need to mount campaigns to provide the required documents to voters in time for the election.
This decision will make touch screen voting machines, planned long voting lines in urban precincts; pre-election voter list reviews and other suppression techniques seem very mild.
Quoting partially from a letter from Christine Marques, International Chair:
Dear Democrats,
Representative Carolyn Maloney’s bill HR 4237 Overseas Voting Practical Amendments Act of 2007 is moving forward - and fast.
With this bill, voters abroad won’t get hung up on technicalities - like missing postmarks or the paper weight of our ballot requests.
Remember 2000? 2004? We’ve been working with Representative Maloney so that key voting reform measures are adopted and in place before Election Day 2008. But we need your help - and urgently.
Join us in a letter writing campaign supporting HR 4237, by this THURSDAY, MAY 1st. Send your email message to Executive Director Lindsey Reynolds, at ed@democratsabroad.org. (Please remember to say which state you vote in, and the country you reside in.) ….
In reading recommendation 7f below, links to information about the bill and the text of the bill are provided. This letter writing campaign to get this passed is very important to the better handling of requests for registration and ballots and the return of ballots this fall. The bill currently has 8 sponsors and needs many more; so please encourage your Representative (or Senator) to co-sponsor (if in the House) or sponsor (if in the Senate).
For WW readers in the US, please call the local office of your Representative and ask them to help out with HR 4237 The Overseas Voting Practical Amendments Act of 2007.
Thanks.
The chart below comes from Swing State Project and gives a clear indication who is competitive in trying to take Senate seats from the opposition. In some cases the Incumbent column reflects a replacement for a member who is quitting for whatever reason. Note, too, that some primaries have not yet been held, so two or more major candidates are listed, e.g. New Mexico, Oregon. While it is early, anyone under 10% has a lot of work to do to be competitive. Several incumbents not listed here have no opponent.
| Rank | State | Candidate | Party | CoH | Incumbent* | Party | CoH | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VA | Mark Warner | D | 4,384,294 | Jim Gilmore | R | 208,133 | 2106% |
| 2 | NM | Tom Udall | D | 2,582,990 | Steve Pearce | R | 855,203 | 302% |
| 3 | NM | Tom Udall | D | 2,582,990 | Heather Wilson | R | 1,196,053 | 216% |
| 4 | CO | Mark Udall | D | 4,236,533 | Bob Schaffer | R | 2,160,863 | 196% |
| 5 | ME | Tom Allen | D | 2,687,701 | Susan Collins | R | 4,511,493 | 60% |
| 6 | MN | Al Franken | D | 3,491,480 | Norm Coleman | R | 6,960,913 | 50% |
| 7 | NJ | Rob Andrews | D | 2,232,312 | Frank Lautenberg | D | 4,702,249 | 47% |
| 8 | NH | Jeanne Shaheen | D | 1,837,539 | John Sununu | R | 4,313,762 | 43% |
| 9 | LA | John Kennedy | R | 1,623,391 | Mary Landrieu | D | 4,564,082 | 36% |
| 10 | ID | Larry LaRocco | D | 253,707 | Jim Risch | R | 935,876 | 27% |
| 11 | OK | Andrew Rice | D | 597,478 | Jim Inhofe | R | 2,221,848 | 27% |
| 12 | NE | Scott Kleeb | D | 281,095 | Mike Johanns | R | 1,335,390 | 21% |
| 13 | AK | Mark Begich | D | 204,207 | Ted Stevens | R | 1,318,722 | 15% |
| 14 | IL | Steve Sauerberg | R | 1,074,982 | Richard Durbin | D | 7,567,277 | 14% |
| 15 | MS-B | Ronnie Musgrove | D | 337,249 | Roger Wicker | R | 2,765,229 | 12% |
| 16 | KY | Greg Fischer | D | 854,557 | Mitch McConnell | R | 7,741,422 | 11% |
| 17 | NE | Tony Raimondo | D | 140,720 | Mike Johanns | R | 1,335,390 | 11% |
| 18 | NC | Kay Hagan | D | 312,000 | Elizabeth Dole | R | 3,200,000 | 10% |
| 19 | KS | Jim Slattery | D | 286,125 | Pat Roberts | R | 2,986,794 | 10% |
| 20 | OR | Jeff Merkley | D | 473,833 | Gordon Smith | R | 5,149,251 | 9% |
| 21 | GA | Jim Martin | D | 333,132 | Saxby Chambliss | R | 3,637,392 | 9% |
| 22 | KY | Bruce Lunsford | D | 666,373 | Mitch McConnell | R | 7,741,422 | 9% |
| 23 | TN | Bob Tuke | D | 217,093 | Lamar Alexander | R | 2,874,512 | 8% |
| 24 | SC | Buddy Witherspoon | R | 257,911 | Lindsey Graham | R | 4,777,019 | 5% |
| 25 | OR | Steve Novick | D | 197,007 | Gordon Smith | R | 5,149,251 | 4% |
| 26 | TX | Rick Noriega | D | 329,294 | John Cornyn | R | 8,688,954 | 4% |
| 27 | WY-B | Nick Carter | D | 26,743 | John Barrasso | R | 1,139,381 | 2% |
| 28 | MA | Jim Ogonowski | R | 186,929 | John Kerry | D | 9,323,486 | 2% |
| 29 | AL | Vivian Figures | D | 44,628 | Jeff Sessions | R | 4,033,195 | 1% |
| 30 | SD | Joel Dykstra | R | 20,393 | Tim Johnson | D | 2,523,586 | 1% |
| 31 | MT | Kirk Bushman | R | 8,097 | Max Baucus | D | 6,394,024 | 0% |
| 32 | SD | Sam Kephart | R | 2,107 | Tim Johnson | D | 2,523,586 | 0% |
| 33 | MT | Michael Lange | R | 1,976 | Max Baucus | D | 6,394,024 | 0% |
CALIFORNIA. Cindy Sheehan kept her promise. She has filed the required paperwork to run as an Independent against Nancy Pelosi in CA-08. She needs 10,000+ signatures by the end of August to get on the ballot, which is not seen as a great hurdle. Pelosi is also facing Shirley Golub in the Democratic primary, another anti-war, pro-impeachment candidate. Golub is not expected to win, but her vote total on June 3rd may give an indication whether Sheehan will cause any sleepless nights for the House Speaker.
NEVADA. What happens when the party walks out of its own state convention? Probably a first in American political history; the Ron Paul campaign (he is still a candidate) took over the Republican state convention, passed new rules allowing any state delegate to run for national convention delegate and were only their way to electing a majority from Nevada for Paul for St. Paul in early September. What happened next?
In a written statement, party chairwoman Sue Lowden said the vote to allow self-nominations doubled the number of people competing for 31 spots to the national convention. That overwhelmed the party’s capacity to process the votes.
“Unfortunately, with the rule changes implemented this morning, we did not have time to complete the process,” she said. “Our contract for the meeting space had expired, as had our budget, and ballots were unable to be physically produced by the nominations committee. We had to temporarily recess the convention.”
The GOP leadership walked out of the convention and said it had to be rescheduled.
“Paul spokesman Jeff Greenspan said the walkout was a first in his 21-year career in politics.
“I’ve seen factions walk out, I’ve never seen a party walk out,” he said. “I’ve never even heard of that.”
Those Republicans just hate democracy, don’t they?
TEXAS. One for the books. A House committee on immigration decided to have a look at the new wall being proposed for south Texas. Colorado Rep Tom Tancredo, who ran for President on an anti-immigration platform, was treated pretty unkindly by the assembled citizens of Brownsville, who think the whole idea of a wall is wrong, since folks on both sides of the Rio Grande seem to get along OK. The treatment turned to loud boos when Tancredo suggested that the wall be built on the north side of Brownsville; essentially putting Brownsville on the Mexican side of the border.
As I mentioned last week, I have received many comments on the future of WW as it pertains to contributions. They were all very helpful and persuaded me that here is what I need to do.
Once again, my appreciation to those who wrote with suggestions and my deepest thanks in advance for any and all who contribute to keep WW alive.
Best regards
John McQueen
Am Goetzenberg 2
69126 Heidelberg, Germany
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John McQueen of Democrats Abroad Germany, Wednesday Campaign Wire with views and analysis of campaigns and races in the United States.
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